Sunday, November 29, 2009

FTSE Outlook week commencing 30 Nov 09


5400 has proved to be a major hurdle for FTSE. In fact, I am left wondering if with 5396, has FTSE pretty much run out of fizz for the year? Are we headed down big time?

For the next few days, 5000 seems to be a good possibility. But the market can do strange things. Be careful out there - these are troubled times.

NIFTY Outlook week commencing 30 Nov 09

NIFTY began the week with what looked like a solid rise. Then came Thursday and Friday! NIFTY and the other markets fell in one massive hurry. Interestingly, NIFTY fell to the lower line of a long-running channel (brown). Price has bounced sharply off this line and may contintue rising. Up to a point. I suspect there could be lots more downside to come. So watch out for the red trendline providing potential resistance if and when NIFTY gets to that level.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

FTSE Outlook week commencing 16 Nov 09

As the chart shows, the index is seemingly hitting a wall at around 5300. Although the trendline studies I have put up on the chart seem to suggest a possible target in the vicinity of 5400, we may have possibly seen a top at 5300 itself. As ever, the market is right and we can only try and approximate its direction and destination. Good luck with your trades.

NIFTY Outlook week commencing 16 Nov 09


The big question is how far will this rally last? I have targets at 5134 and 5182. I am inclined to believe the index may not go higher than 5182 and the bears might get busy yet again. However, that is just an opinion and come what may, we must bow to the market's wisdom!

Sunday, November 8, 2009

FTSE Outlook week commencing 09 Nov 09

FTSE dropped last week as we expected though it fell short of the target by about 30 points. A good bounce followed. But we are back at a point where the index might encounter resistance (around 5165). If it blasts through 5165 upwards, 5220 might be a potential target. With the situation being a bit unclear, best to wait and see what the market's intentions are.

NIFTY Outlook week commencing 09 Nov 2009


The bears certainly had a good time. As expected, the index fell to the level we had projected and in fact, a bit further. A sharp bounce followed. Question now is - where next? If the bounce continues, we could well be looking at 4935 as an upside target. A further target of 5181.95 is not impossible. And if and when it gets there, watch out for the possibility of a double-top. Good luck!

Sunday, November 1, 2009

FTSE Outlook week commencing 1 Nov 09

Hmmmmmm...news comes out that the US is "out of recession." How does the market greet that announcement? By dropping significantly!

FTSE could drop a bit more this week - probably about 100 points before it finds support around 4955. If it fails to stop there...the lower line of the brown channel will be waiting! Good luck with your trades.

NIFTY Outlook week commencing 02 Nov 09


Last week, we wondered if NIFTY will creep back into the channel or continue to journey downwards. South is what the index chose. I expect a continuation of the move downwards, most likely to 4577. Once it gets there, there is a good chance of a bounce.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

FTSE Outlook week commencing 26 Oct 09


Undoubtedly FTSE's rise has caught a good many by surprise. But are we close to hitting the buffers? Take a look at this chart - there's a very interesting point of confluence around 5495. I will be watching that area very carefully - could well mark a turning point.

NIFTY Outlook week commencing 26 Oct 09


Time to get back to updating the blog. There will be some changes, though. Owing to time constraints, I will only update the blog on a weekly basis. Should something interesting develop, I may do mid-week updates.

During the period I've been away, I've been looking seriously at alternative methods of analysing the market. You will see some of this in the charts posted here. So here goes.....

Despite all the bad news on the economic front, the markets seem have to just shrugged and carried on rising. The question of course is, how far can they rising? Looking at NIFTY, a rise to 5274 seems quite possible for now. However, I must add it is looking a bit tired already. As the green pitchfork shows, price seems to be hanging on to the lower line of the pitchfork for dear life. Should it fail to rise from that point, we could be looking at a good drop of about 200-300 points down to the lower line of the brown channel. Good luck with your trading!

Monday, August 17, 2009

No updates for a few days!

My main PC has suffered a serious hard disk crash. Until I get re-organised, I'm afraid I won't be able to update the blog. Sincere apologies.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 17th August 2009

Figure 1 Long-term FTSE Chart


Figure 2 Close-up of same chart


Instead of the usual Gann Grid type chart, I present two simple bar chart views of FTSE. Take a look at the upper trend line. On Friday, FTSE managed to close below this trend line. I think we should feel a little uneasy with this development. Perhaps I am wrong and FTSE will carry on upwards. But what if the down close was a sign.....?

Projected High: 4,752.0752 (38.1050 points)
Projected Low: 4,661.3950 (52.5752 points)

Bullish above 4,725
Bearish below 4,701

NIFTY Outlook for 17th August 2009


There is no real change to the outlook for NIFTY. The yellow highlighted spot continues to be an area of concern. The mid-point to the timing line occurs on the 19th of August 2009. That could be a day to look out for unless things begin to move a bit sooner.

Projected High: 4,608.3745 (10.6245 points)
Projected Low: 4,548.7246 (49.0254 points)

Bullish above 4,614
Bearish below 4,581

Thursday, August 13, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 14th August 2009

With FTSE closing above the 270° line, the case could be made for a continuing bullish outlook. I'd say, the index will probably attempt to cover the ground between here and the 360°. Do the bears have a chance - I think only if they force some serious selling around the present level.

Projected High: 4,809.3301 (53.8701 points)
Projected Low: 4,736.1099 (19.3501 points)

Bullish above 4,767
Bearish below 4,743


NIFTY Outlook for 14th August 2009

NIFTY put on a heck of a rally on Thursday. What happens next? Keep an eye on the highlighted yellow spot on the chart. That area could potentially repel NIFTY and force further falls.

Projected High: 4,687.3750 (82.3750 points)
Projected Low: 4,531.7749 (73.2251 points)

Bullish above 4,636
Bearish below 4,573

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 13th August 2009


A frustrating day for the bears! Just when it looked like the bears were beginning to steer the ship their way, FTSE goes and mounts a strong rally! But will this fight-back last? I have my doubts. The bears will be back pretty soon and the indices will continue their downward journey.

Projected High: 4,765.0791 (48.3193 points)
Projected Low: 4,674.2295 (42.5303 points)

Bullish above 4,728
Bearish below 4,704

NIFTY Outlook for 13th August 2009

After a pretty good fall, NIFTY recovered very strongly. The bounce took place off the green diagonal line in th 2nd square of the grid (counting downwards). This tends to happen frequently. Big question now - will the downtrend continue or are we in for some more tests to the upside? In my opinion, we are not done with the falls.

Projected High: 4,465.6499 (8.1499 points)
Projected Low: 4,351.2500 (106.2500 points)

Bullish above 4,488
Bearish below 4,426

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 12th August 2009

The timing line proved to be of value as demonstrated by Tuesday's drop on the FTSE. Hopefully, this will now develop into a pullback lasting several days (and beyond!).

As for Wednesday, I think a bit of a bounce followed by some more fall is the most likely scenario. No doubt, the bears will be stirring and may be tempted to mount a full-fledged attack soon.

Projected High: 4,707.7241 (36.3843 points)
Projected Low: 4,621.3940 (49.9458 points)

Bullish above 4,683
Bearish below 4,659

NIFTY Outlook for 12th August 2009

Regrettably, I've had problems downloading data for Tuesday's NIFTY. As such, I am unable to complete the analysis and put up a chart. Hopefully, the problem will be resolved by the next update.

Monday, August 10, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 11th August 2009


At one point, it looked like FTSE would shed serious points today. It didn't. But we ended up with a "Hanging Man" candlestick right at the timing line (open to correction re. the candlestick). This could be the signal of bearish times to come.

Projected High: 4,726.8804 (4.6802 points)
Projected Low: 4,684.0903 (38.1099 points)

Bullish above 4,734
Bearish below 4,710

NIFTY Outlook for 11th August 2009

I find it interesting that NIFTY seems so determined to march down while the Western markets don't quite want to go down yet. That being said, I think NIFTY is on target to meet the 180° line though I wouldn't be surprised to see it attempt a rally of sorts in between.

Projected High: 4,500.0757 (62.4258 points)
Projected Low: 4,337.4258 (100.2241 points)

Bullish above 4,462
Bearish below 4,413

Sunday, August 9, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 10th August 2009

Chart 1 - Long term trend lines

Chart 2 - FTSE as viewed with the Gann Grid

Two charts are presented for FTSE this time. Chart 1 shows an interesting pair of long-term trend lines. The lower line has clearly acted as resistance with about three touches. Note that this upper line is parallel to the lower trend line. The upper line is yet to be tested and we may be on the verge of seeing that test. If the test is successful, FTSE is going to head down. On the other hand if the index rips upwards, there will be a long distance to go. Chart 2 is the usual grid chart and shows we are one day away from the timing line. Exciting times await us!

Projected High: 4,793.3203 (61.7603 points)
Projected Low: 4,681.8604 (49.6997 points)

Bullish above 4,746
Bearish below 4,716

NIFTY Outlook for 10th August 2009


On Friday, NIFTY fell fairly significantly. Western markets did not follow suit and instead put on a rise. However, I have a feeling of unease about the markets now. We're either going to go ripping upwards and not look back for a while or we could head down towards the centre of the earth! Okay, being a bit dramatic there! But there's no denying there's something creepy about the markets at this point. Let's see what Monday and the rest of the week brings.

Projected High: 4,536.6494 (55.2495 points)
Projected Low: 4,408.6997 (72.7002 points)

Bullish above 4,505
Bearish below 4,456

Thursday, August 6, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 7th August 2009

FTSE hit the 270° line target of 4725. It's a bit early as we're two trading days away from the timing line. Further comments are in-chart.

Projected High: 4,751.2803 (60.7505 points)
Projected Low: 4,668.8301 (21.6997 points)

Bullish above 4,703
Bearish below 4,677

NIFTY Outlook for 7th August 2009


Has NIFTY chickened out by dropping before reaching the target at the 360° line? Or is it going to surprise us by putting on a big rally on Friday? I guess we can only watch while NIFTY makes up its mind.

Projected High: 4,651.8252 (66.3252 points)
Projected Low: 4,492.8755 (92.6245 points)

Bullish above 4,609
Bearish below 4,561

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 6th August 2009

FTSE too seemingly has an appointment with the bears on the 10th of August. Perhaps I am overstating the case. But in any case, thanks to a timing line that falls on that date, I least expect a reaction. We have not yet reached the 270° target of 4725. Who knows, the price and time target may both materialise at the same time!

Projected High: 4,671.8848 (24.7549 points)
Projected Low: 4,605.8745 (41.2554 points)

Bullish above 4,659
Bearish below 4,634

NIFTY Outlook for 6th August 2009

10th of August 2009. That's where the nearest timing line on this grid for NIFTY is. We're still a few points away from the 360° target of 4750. Will we get there in time and on schedule? Let's leave it to the market to put on a show for us.

Projected High: 4,749.3501 (55.2002 points)
Projected Low: 4,662.0000 (32.1499 points)

Bullish above 4,718
Bearish below 4,669

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

FTSE & NIFTY Outlook

Folks, I'm taking a day's break today. The next update will take place in time for Thursday's market.

Monday, August 3, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 4th August 2009

FTSE marches on! I could be wrong and this is probably personal bias, it feels like it is headed for the slaughter house. The 270° level of 4725 is so close as is the timing line that a sense of the inevitable is unavoidable. Is that just me or will it become fact? The next day or two should reveal all.

Projected High: 4,753.6699 (71.2100 points)
Projected Low: 4,639.0200 (43.4399 points)

Bullish above 4,695.2783
Bearish below 4,669.6416

NIFTY Outlook for 4th August 2009


Not much to say about NIFTY today except that it is clearly headed for the 360° line.

Projected High: 4,770.5752 (59.1753 points)
Projected Low: 4,664.5752 (46.8247 points)

Bullish above 4,731
Bearish below 4,691

Sunday, August 2, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 3rd August 2009

EDIT: On the chart, please read "Resistance at 4340" as "Resistance at 4640" Apologies for the error.

At first, FTSE's amazing ride up probably baffled a good many traders. If you don't hop on for the ride at the right time, you pretty much miss the ride especially when there's hardly a pullback. But is FTSE close to being forced to take a breather or even a correction? The possibility is rather high seeing that we are right at resistance. If it blasts through, it might head for the 270° line. If not, the bears may finally go on a rampage.

Projected High: 4,626.9302 (18.5703 points)
Projected Low: 4,581.1504 (27.2095 points)

Bullish above 4,621
Bearish below 4,595

NIFTY Outlook for 3rd August 2009

NIFTY managed to put in yet another day of rise on Friday. However, there is danger on two fronts. Firstly, there's potential resistance at 4693 and if that's not enough, the next hurdle will be at the 360° line at4750. Will NIFTY hit turbulence at either of those levels and choose to head down or will it ignore the dangers and carry on even higher? The next 2-3 days promise to be very interesting.

Projected High: 4,702.1753 (65.7251 points)
Projected Low: 4,604.0254 (32.4248 points)

Bullish above 4,655
Bearish below 4,617

Thursday, July 30, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 31st July 2009


Despite the strong close today, I am not moved. I will hang onto my bearish hat for FTSE for one more day! Please see chart for comments. I mention the fact that FTSE may have reached an earlier resistance level - the chart that shows that level is in this post FTSE resistance

Projected High: 4,688.8999 (57.2900 points)
Projected Low: 4,589.5698 (42.0400 points)

Bullish above 4,648.9785
Bearish below 4,614.2412

NIFTY Outlook for 31st July 2009

NIFTY put on a good fight today and closed up nicely. But what of our bearish scenario? See chart for brief comments.

Projected High: 4,630.8252 (59.3750 points)
Projected Low: 4,522.9751 (48.4751 points)

Bullish above 4,590
Bearish below 4,552

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 30th July 2009


FTSE managed to close up today. Should we revise our bearish outlook? I think not! The red diagonal on the re-anchored grid appears to be guiding the price down. Although there can and be brief rallies, I am of the view that we will see FTSE drop down to at least 4295 in a few days time.

Projected High: 4,599.4946 (51.9648 points)
Projected Low: 4,529.8149 (17.7148 points)

Bullish above 4,564
Bearish below 4,530

NIFTY Outlook for 30th July 2009



The half-way time line seemed to put the brakes on NIFTY's rise after all. Wednesday saw a big drop on on the index although there was a fair bit of recovery. Question now is will we continue further down or will the index fight back? We will probably see a bit of a fightback initially. Short-term (say about 3-4 weeks), the outlook is bearish with the possibility of a drop to 4177 which happens to be the 180° level on the Square of Nine Grid.

Projected High: 4,543.6748 (30.1748 points)
Projected Low: 4,390.6245 (122.8755 points)

Bullish above 4,532
Bearish below 4,494

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 29th July 2009


FTSE cheerfully reflected our bearish outlook as presented yesterday. The index closed down by about 57 points. If the downward pressure continues for another day or two, a decent pullback should occur. After a rather strong move up, a pullback is inevitable - the only question is of extent. More about this in tomorrow's post.

Projected High: 4,572.6396 (43.7998 points)
Projected Low: 4,476.4595 (52.3804 points)

Bullish above 4,542
Bearish below 4,515

NIFTY Outlook for 29th July 2009


NIFTY didn't seem to really go sliding down on Tuesday. As it sits upon the 270° line, it is anybody's guess where it will head next. DOW promised a biggish fall but then recovered on Tuesday. Will NIFTY take a cue and resist the journey down? Best to wait for the market to show its hand clearly.

Projected High: 4,582.0005 (17.9004 points)
Projected Low: 4,511.2505 (52.8496 points)

Bullish above 4,583
Bearish below 4,544

Monday, July 27, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 28th July 2009

Both FTSE and NIFTY seem to be at an interesting time point on the Gann grid. Both are exactly at the mid-point to their nearest timing lines and are showing some weakness. As I write this, I note that the DOW has closed down today. No doubt, Asian markets will take their cue from there.

On FTSE, note that there is potential resistance around 4640. Having scaled a high of 4615 today, there's not a great deal of room above. Perhaps grey clouds (if not dark) are gathering.

Projected High: 4,631.6406 (45.5107 points)
Projected Low: 4,569.6104 (16.5195 points)

Bullish above 4,599
Bearish below 4,572

NIFTY Outlook for 28th July 2009


We're at an interesting point with regards to most markets, NIFTY being no exception. Note from the chart that we are exactly at the mid-point to the nearest time line. My experience shows that this point in time could potentially be a turning point. The fact that NIFTY has formed a doji at this very juncture could be a little ominous. Could we see the beginning of a pullback on Tuesday?

Projected High: 4,618.6504 (46.3506 points)
Projected Low: 4,550.4004 (21.8994 points)

Bullish above 4,591
Bearish below 4,553

Thursday, July 23, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 24th July 2009


FTSE managed to blast through the 180° line on Thursday. Clearly, the bulls are in charge now. We can probably expect rallies in the days to come. Some of may wonder exactly what is the good news in the world economy that is driving the markets up. The answer to that probably is that we're looking in the wrong place for an answer! They say stock markets generally lead the economy. Could well be the case that is exactly what we are witnessing now.

I wouldn't be surprised if FTSE made its way to at least the 270° level in a few days time.

Projected High: 4,610.6353 (50.8354 points)
Projected Low: 4,515.9351 (43.8647 points)

Bullish above 4,573
Bearish below 4,546

NIFTY Outlook for 24th July 2009


Perhaps Asian markets had an inkling of what is to come during the day in the Western markets. NIFTY has rejected the downside potential and risen quite smartly. Undoubtedly there will be follow-through on Friday on the back of the sparkling rise in US markets.

NIFTY could commence a journey to the 360° line though it won't obviously get there in a straight line. Needless to say, all bearish bets are off!

Projected High: 4,591.2998 (67.5498 points)
Projected Low: 4,464.8501 (58.8999 points

Bullish above 4,548
Bearish below 4,499

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 23rd July 2009


No touch of the 180° line yet. Let's give it another day or so.


Projected High: 4,520.2505 (26.5205 points)
Projected Low: 4,471.4604 (22.2695 points)

Bullish above 4,507
Bearish below 4,480

NIFTY Outlook for 23rd July 2009


Although NIFTY poked its head about 22 points above the 270° level of 4535, the index pretty much hit a brick wall and turned down firmly. If the down move continues, we will probably see a visit down to the 180° level. If it carries down further, we'll probably look at re-anchoring the grid from the recent high (if that is what it turns out to be).

Projected High: 4,478.4248 (79.5249 points)
Projected Low: 4,300.9248 (97.9751 points)

Bullish above 4,423
Bearish below 4,374

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 22nd July 2009


We are at a very, very interesting level here. FTSE is a whisker away from major resistance. And even more interesting is the fact that the 180 degree level lines up with this major resistance - 4510 to 4520. If the index punches through this level, perhaps we will see the bulls run amok. If not, the bears will smother everything down!

Projected High: 4,523.8003 (42.6304 points)
Projected Low: 4,459.4902 (21.6797 points)

Bullish above 4,495
Bearish below 4,467

NIFTY Outlook for 22nd July 2009


No doubt there's been good strength in the market. But are we now about to run out of energy? Although NIFTY took out a recent high (see chart), we are just a few points away from the danger level of 270 degrees. Watch closely how NIFTY behaves around that level.

Projected High: 4,496.5503 (27.4502 points)
Projected Low: 4,409.1504 (59.9497 points)

Bullish above 4,489
Bearish below 4,449

Monday, July 20, 2009

NIFTY and FTSE Outlook for 21st Juy 2009

Apologies. I've not been able to put together the charts and text for the daily outlook for 21st July. I will resume the posts from the evening of 21st July.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

FTSE Outlook for 20th July 2009



Two chart views for FTSE this time. Both looking sufficiently bearish. I am pretty much convinced we are on the verge of seeing the downtrend resume. Initial short-term target seems to be in the vicinity of 4178. There could further downside to follow after that but not without a bounce or two I suppose.

Projected High: 4,425.3652 (36.6152 points)
Projected Low: 4,375.2949 (13.4551 points)

Bullish above 4,402
Bearish below 4,374

NIFTY Outlook for 20th July 2009





I have put up two chart views for NIFTY this time. In both cases, the outlook is definitely bearish. Bulls better beware! See charts for further comments.

Projected High: 4,462.7993 (87.8491 points)
Projected Low: 4,302.5493 (72.4009 points)

Bullish above 4,394
Bearish below 4,354