NIFTY Outlook for 30th Jan 2009

NIFTY has run into a spot of trouble after touching the red diagonal. If it continues to reverse from this point, there could be a fair bit of trouble ahead. Watch the action tomorrow for signs of weakness.

FTSE Outlook for 30th Jan 2009

FTSE EOD Chart

FTSE Intraday chart

From yesterday's post: "Two scenarios were presented. FTSE "opted" to rise to the upper line of the blue pitchfork. Quite reasonable to expect a bit of a pullback for today." The pullback did occur as envisaged. The only question now is do we have further to go? Probably, yes.

Moving on to the EOD chart, a rise to the 180 degree line (4364) cannot be ruled out but probably not before FTSE sheds a few more points.


Range Projection:

Possible High: 4,242 (52 points)
Possible Low: 4,095 (95 points)

FTSE Outlook for 29th Jan 2009

Refer to the intraday chart posted yesterday. Two scenarios were presented. FTSE "opted" to rise to the upper line of the blue pitchfork. Quite reasonable to expect a bit of a pullback for today.

Moving on to the EOD chart, we can see FTSE is approaching a possible touch of the red diagonal line (sloping down). To obtain this view, please note I have used a different value for the Factor setting (hopefully someone will ask what is the relevance of that parameter!).

NIFTY Outlook for 29th Jan 2009

Just a quick update - NIFTY has moved up to the red diagonal and is showing signs of reversing from there.

FTSE Outlook for 28th Jan 2009

As expected, there was a decent fall on the FTSE yesterday (27th Jan) although it did recover a fair bit despite closing down. As for Wednesday, FTSE will probably attempt a rise. The hurdle I see is the 180 degree line at 4253 which could potentially prove to be resistance. If it does push through, we will have new upside targets.

Tuesday's trading range was the narrowest of the last seven days. The EOD chart shows that the FTSE formed an "Inside Day."

The intraday chart shows possible scenarios that FTSE is likely to play out today.

FTSE Outlook for 27th Jan 2009

FTSE put in a rather sharp bounce on Monday.  Typically, such sharp bounces seem to be followed by a reversal the following day.  So I'll stick my neck out and root for a reversal Tuesday though there could be an initial attempt to carry on with the bounce.

Range Projection:

Possible High: 4,310 (101 points)

Possible Low: 4,124 (85 points)

NIFTY Outlook for 26th Jan 2009

NIFTY is now clearly at a potential support point. The rising diagonal line in the current box (which must be considered as the lower box) often provides support after the floor of the upper box has been broken. Watch NIFTY carefully - even if it rises tomorrow, there will still be the possibility that the 180 degree line may provide resistance.

Here's a simple range projection for NIFTY: (do not take it as a done deal!)

Possible High: 2,722.7 (43 points)
Possible Low: 2,636.8 (43 points)

FTSE Outlook for 26th Jan 2009

On Friday, at one point, it looked like FTSE will sink quite a bit. But as ever, the market always seems to do something other than your expectation. And so, it managed to close in the positive.

How does it look for Monday? Although I do not rule out further falls, there are a few things that seem to suggest we might be in for a bounce on Monday. Again, whether this will last and carry on is a question mark. I confess to being a bear by inclination and would be pleased to see FTSE drop to my target of 3850. But when it comes to trading, personal bias must be set aside.

Finally, here's an attempt at forecasting the trading range for Monday's FTSE:

Possible High: 4,118.65 (66 points)
Possible Low: 4,004.57 (48 points)

FTSE Outlook for 23rd Jan 2009

Yesterday, there was an attempted bounce. However, it didn't take very long for FTSE give up all its gains and in fact, turn negative. The downward pressure is still high and I am fairly convinced we are going to see FTSE visit the 360 degree line at 3850. Hopefully it won't hit that target in a single day!

NIFTY Outlook for 23rd Jan 2009

A doji bar has formed at the apex. This could be significant. There is a fair chance of an upward move now. Hopefully the rally could go all the way upto the red diagonal though this won't happen in a single day.

On the other hand, if NIFTY chooses to drop, a visit to the 360 degree line in a few days' time cannot be ruled out.

FTSE Outlook for 22nd Jan 2009

After what looked like a bad day for FTSE, it managed to claw back some of the losses on 21st Jan.

Just as NIFTY, FTSE too has reached the apex point (see yellow arrow). As mentioned in the past, these points are where reversals are seen to occur quite often. Given the fact that DOW put in a healthy bounce on the 21st, it would be quite reasonable to expect FTSE to follow. But as ever, trade what you see!

NIFTY Outlook for 22nd Jan 2009

Yesterday (21st Jan), we had a decent fall on NIFTY. Seeing that it is fairly close to the rising green diagonal line, perhaps we can look forward to a bounce. Another very interesting fact is that NIFTY has reached the apex point (time-wise) of the triangle. Very often, we see reversal occur when these points are reached. Should be an interesting day for NIFTY.

NIFTY Outlook for 21st Jan 2009

For the past six trading days, NIFTY has been moving in a rather small range. We need to see a breakout from this range. Calls for patience!

FTSE Outlook for 21st Jan 2009

The hope a bounce is fast dwindling. Unless FTSE moves up within a day or two, it is increasingly looking like it is destined to visit the 360 degree line at 3850. There could be further downside too but we'll worry about that as things develop. Interesting times lie ahead.

The end of day chart for 20th Jan 2009 shows that FTSE has formed an "Inside Day."

If there are day-traders visiting this blog, please let me know if you'd be interested in an intraday chart.

NIFTY Outlook for 19th Jan 2009

There's not a great deal to said about NIFTY other than that it is in no-man's land! We have to wait for the market to show its hand and make a decisive move before forming a clear opinion about direction.

This could be a bit of a pause before a further move down. Or it could attempt to rally for a few days, perhaps hit the red diagonal and resume the journey downwards. Best to wait and watch.

FTSE Outlook for 19th Jan 2009

FTSE with a bearish grid


FTSE with a bullish grid

Everything appears to be in place for a strong bounce on the FTSE. The only question is: will it actually happen? I will be watching the situation very carefully though I suspect the market may not do very much on Monday.

FTSE Outlook for 16th Jan 2009

In the previous FTSE post, I mentioned the possibility of the fall on FTSE continuing till we touched 4076-4093. The index today put in a low of 4090.87. It could well be ready for a bounce. The only thing that worries me slightly is that we are so close to touching the 270 degree line of 4049. Makes we wonder if we will see price pulled down to that level before a bounce does occur.

DOW having put in a bounce today, the likelihood of FTSE rising tomorrow is rather high. It would make sense for me to look for longs tomorrow, getting in on retracements. However, the rule "Trade what you see and not what you think" will still be firmly in my mind!

NIFTY Outlook for 16th Jan 2009

NIFTY is definitely inching closer to the target 2640. With DOW putting in a bounce of sorts, I do wonder if NIFTY will take a cue and attempt something similar.

NIFTY

Apologies, I've not been able to prepare a full analysis for NIFTY.

FTSE Outlook for 15th Jan 2009

That was a massive fall we saw on the FTSE yesterday (14th Jan). I suspect the fall will continue until we touch 4076-4093.

The larger red circle marks the zone where I expect this bounce to occur. Quite often, the rising green diagonal tends to provide support once price has travelled below the upper "box." However if that line fails to provide the expected support, then a visit to the 360 degree line of 3850 cannot be ruled out!

FTSE Outlook for 14th Jan 2009

A few days ago, I had mentioned 4382 as a target for FTSE. Yesterday, we finally saw FTSE achieve and exceed that target.

With a changed factor setting of 0.5, we see the support levels at 90 degrees apart on the Square of Nine. FTSE is now close to a possible bounce point. I wouldn't be surprised if we see FTSE attempt a good bounce today.

NIFTY Outlook for 14th Jan 2009

NIFTY has so far obliged by continuing to slide towards the 2640. Hopefully, it should get there pretty soon. Keep an eye on the marked targets - I am pretty confident of their being achieved.

Good luck for Wednesday!

NIFTY Outlook for 13th Jan 2009

Yesterday, I'd mentioned 2747 as a possible downside target for NIFTY if the double-bottom did not materialise. The index dropped down all the way to 2748.5 missing the target by 1.5 points!

Having re-aligned the Gann Grid, things continue to look bearish for NIFTY. I have highlighted a couple of targets. The fact that NIFTY has closed below the 180 degree line is definitely bad news as the conclusion is that it will try to make its way down to the 360 degree line. Unless of course, the rising green diagonal above the 360 degree horizontal line provides support causing NIFTY to bounce.

FTSE Outlook for 13th Jan 2009

Monday's trading range was rather disappointing. Add to that annoying intra-day whipsaws and you wish you'd stayed in bed!

Anyway, as you can see in the chart, the index has managed to touch the rising green diagonal line (which ends up being the lower line of an effective channel that FTSE has been moving along). So, the question now is: will FTSE bounce from here? My best guess is, it will probably attempt a bounce. Whether it will be a sustained bounce, only time will tell (and very soon!).

The trading range we've seen today happens to be the narrowest of the last seven days. Hopefully, we will see a big move tomorrow once a clear breakout occurs.

NIFTY Outlook for 12th Jan 2009

NIFTY failed to rise on Friday. As of now, there is the possibility of a Double-Bottom at the present level. If the level holds, we could see a good bounce. If not, an initial drop to 2747. In any case, it looks like this is a good time to let the market show its hand before deciding on a course of action.

After Monday's close, I will post an updated chart with a re-aligned Gann Grid.

FTSE Outlook for 12th Jan 2009

Looks to me despite missing the projected drop to 4382 on Friday we might still see further downside on FTSE. A close below 4300 is likely to see the index drop down to 4076 and perhaps all the way down to 3914!

Friday's trading range was the narrowest of the last four days. A breakout in either direction could be biggish.

Here's a projected range for Monday's FTSE:

Projected High: 4,491.7 (43 points)
Projected Low: 4,388.7 (60 points)

FTSE Outlook for 9th Jan 2009

As mentioned in the previous update for FTSE, I was expecting FTSE to drop to 4382.  The actual low it managed to put in was 4410.5. That's a miss of about 28.5 points.  Again, not too bad, I suppose!

Despite a significant fall during the first half, the index managed a pretty smart recovery during the second.  Where from here?  There's some possibility of further upside action.  However if the index does drop and penetrate the current active channel, we could see some serious downside.  Friday's action should offer clear clues to future direction.  The fact that the index has returned to a level below the the 360 degree line on the Square of Nine Grid does suggest there could be more bearish action to follow.  

Trading-wise, it was a good day for me.  Shorts did very well initially.  The latter half of the day was for longs and I picked up a few points there as well.

NIFTY Outlook for 9th Jan 2009

The Double Top warning for NIFTY was well-justified! The index dropped a solid 192 points into the close. I had no pre-warning about the Satyam debacle!

Hopefully, there could be a bounce when the market opens on Friday. However, I will try to post an updated view at the end of the day today.

FTSE Outlook for 8th Jan 2009

As expected, FTSE did reverse at the time bar at the apex of the shaded triangle. The index lost about 131 points into the close.

I see an initial downside target of about 4382. And that would take us down to the lower end of the channel it has been trading in. It could go lower too.

NIFTY Outlook 6th Jan 2009

Here's an updated NIFTY chart. Look out for a double-top. Actually, two possible double-tops!

FTSE Outlook 6th Jan 2009

Having donned my bear cap, I was not disappointed to see FTSE going down quite nicely though it did put on a rise at the open. However, the downside was not good enough and in the end, FTSE managed to close up for the day. Most of my spread-betting points came from shorting the index though a few came from going long.

As for Tuesday, I'm still bearish. I am hoping for some decent downside. On the chart, I've highlighted a couple of points. The apex of the shaded triangle is the spot where a reversal often takes place. This is likely to be tomorrow or Wednesday. If we do not get the expected reversal, chances are the index will try to rise and perhaps hit the red diagonal before descending. There is also the possibility of a double-top in the vicinity of 4639.

NIFTY Outlook for 5th Jan 2009

Last week, I envisaged a drop on the NIFTY index to about 2767. The lowest it actually got to was 2812.9 which is off by about 46 points. Not too bad but can do better.

For Monday and the following days, I confess I'm not very confident about a sensible projection. I would however, be a bit cautious about further bullishness. Looking at the channel that it is trading in since the low of Nov 20th, there could be room for a bit more of a rise. Or the market may as well fall from here.

I have had to use a slightly unusual factor setting to obtain this channel. And that contributes to my uncertain views about NIFTY. Good luck anyway.

FTSE Outlook for 5th Jan 2009

Apologies for the lack of new posts last week. Winter flu and a nasty malware attack on my pc kept we away.

Last week, FTSE failed to match my bearish outlook. I had mentioned a bullish alternative too - a target of about 4547. It has since hit/exceeded that target having completed a decent 360 degree move on the Square of Nine. Whence from here? There are several TA pointers to a possible top here.

Firstly, FTSE seems to have completed an identifiable 5-wave move (as marked on the chart). Secondly, the 360 degree level that is has presently reached is itself a danger point from where a reversal is quite likely. There are a few other minor indications (unfortunately, I cannot reveal them without getting into copyright issues). Come Monday morning, I will don my bear hat for sure. But if the market proves me wrong, I am quite happy to ditch that and turn bull! After all, we are obliged to trade what we see and not what we think!

Finally, here's a range projection for Monday's FTSE: We could see a move of about 66 points in either direction. So either a possible high of 4627 or a possible low of 4496.