FTSE Outlook for 31st July 2009

Despite the strong close today, I am not moved. I will hang onto my bearish hat for FTSE for one more day! Please see chart for comments. I mention the fact that FTSE may have reached an earlier resistance level - the chart that shows that level is in this post FTSE resistance

Projected High: 4,688.8999 (57.2900 points)
Projected Low: 4,589.5698 (42.0400 points)

Bullish above 4,648.9785
Bearish below 4,614.2412

NIFTY Outlook for 31st July 2009

NIFTY put on a good fight today and closed up nicely. But what of our bearish scenario? See chart for brief comments.

Projected High: 4,630.8252 (59.3750 points)
Projected Low: 4,522.9751 (48.4751 points)

Bullish above 4,590
Bearish below 4,552

FTSE Outlook for 30th July 2009

FTSE managed to close up today. Should we revise our bearish outlook? I think not! The red diagonal on the re-anchored grid appears to be guiding the price down. Although there can and be brief rallies, I am of the view that we will see FTSE drop down to at least 4295 in a few days time.

Projected High: 4,599.4946 (51.9648 points)
Projected Low: 4,529.8149 (17.7148 points)

Bullish above 4,564
Bearish below 4,530

NIFTY Outlook for 30th July 2009

The half-way time line seemed to put the brakes on NIFTY's rise after all. Wednesday saw a big drop on on the index although there was a fair bit of recovery. Question now is will we continue further down or will the index fight back? We will probably see a bit of a fightback initially. Short-term (say about 3-4 weeks), the outlook is bearish with the possibility of a drop to 4177 which happens to be the 180° level on the Square of Nine Grid.

Projected High: 4,543.6748 (30.1748 points)
Projected Low: 4,390.6245 (122.8755 points)

Bullish above 4,532
Bearish below 4,494

FTSE Outlook for 29th July 2009

FTSE cheerfully reflected our bearish outlook as presented yesterday. The index closed down by about 57 points. If the downward pressure continues for another day or two, a decent pullback should occur. After a rather strong move up, a pullback is inevitable - the only question is of extent. More about this in tomorrow's post.

Projected High: 4,572.6396 (43.7998 points)
Projected Low: 4,476.4595 (52.3804 points)

Bullish above 4,542
Bearish below 4,515

NIFTY Outlook for 29th July 2009

NIFTY didn't seem to really go sliding down on Tuesday. As it sits upon the 270° line, it is anybody's guess where it will head next. DOW promised a biggish fall but then recovered on Tuesday. Will NIFTY take a cue and resist the journey down? Best to wait for the market to show its hand clearly.

Projected High: 4,582.0005 (17.9004 points)
Projected Low: 4,511.2505 (52.8496 points)

Bullish above 4,583
Bearish below 4,544

FTSE Outlook for 28th July 2009

Both FTSE and NIFTY seem to be at an interesting time point on the Gann grid. Both are exactly at the mid-point to their nearest timing lines and are showing some weakness. As I write this, I note that the DOW has closed down today. No doubt, Asian markets will take their cue from there.

On FTSE, note that there is potential resistance around 4640. Having scaled a high of 4615 today, there's not a great deal of room above. Perhaps grey clouds (if not dark) are gathering.

Projected High: 4,631.6406 (45.5107 points)
Projected Low: 4,569.6104 (16.5195 points)

Bullish above 4,599
Bearish below 4,572

NIFTY Outlook for 28th July 2009

We're at an interesting point with regards to most markets, NIFTY being no exception. Note from the chart that we are exactly at the mid-point to the nearest time line. My experience shows that this point in time could potentially be a turning point. The fact that NIFTY has formed a doji at this very juncture could be a little ominous. Could we see the beginning of a pullback on Tuesday?

Projected High: 4,618.6504 (46.3506 points)
Projected Low: 4,550.4004 (21.8994 points)

Bullish above 4,591
Bearish below 4,553

FTSE Outlook for 24th July 2009

FTSE managed to blast through the 180° line on Thursday. Clearly, the bulls are in charge now. We can probably expect rallies in the days to come. Some of may wonder exactly what is the good news in the world economy that is driving the markets up. The answer to that probably is that we're looking in the wrong place for an answer! They say stock markets generally lead the economy. Could well be the case that is exactly what we are witnessing now.

I wouldn't be surprised if FTSE made its way to at least the 270° level in a few days time.

Projected High: 4,610.6353 (50.8354 points)
Projected Low: 4,515.9351 (43.8647 points)

Bullish above 4,573
Bearish below 4,546

NIFTY Outlook for 24th July 2009

Perhaps Asian markets had an inkling of what is to come during the day in the Western markets. NIFTY has rejected the downside potential and risen quite smartly. Undoubtedly there will be follow-through on Friday on the back of the sparkling rise in US markets.

NIFTY could commence a journey to the 360° line though it won't obviously get there in a straight line. Needless to say, all bearish bets are off!

Projected High: 4,591.2998 (67.5498 points)
Projected Low: 4,464.8501 (58.8999 points

Bullish above 4,548
Bearish below 4,499

FTSE Outlook for 23rd July 2009

No touch of the 180° line yet. Let's give it another day or so.


Projected High: 4,520.2505 (26.5205 points)
Projected Low: 4,471.4604 (22.2695 points)

Bullish above 4,507
Bearish below 4,480

NIFTY Outlook for 23rd July 2009

Although NIFTY poked its head about 22 points above the 270° level of 4535, the index pretty much hit a brick wall and turned down firmly. If the down move continues, we will probably see a visit down to the 180° level. If it carries down further, we'll probably look at re-anchoring the grid from the recent high (if that is what it turns out to be).

Projected High: 4,478.4248 (79.5249 points)
Projected Low: 4,300.9248 (97.9751 points)

Bullish above 4,423
Bearish below 4,374

FTSE Outlook for 22nd July 2009

We are at a very, very interesting level here. FTSE is a whisker away from major resistance. And even more interesting is the fact that the 180 degree level lines up with this major resistance - 4510 to 4520. If the index punches through this level, perhaps we will see the bulls run amok. If not, the bears will smother everything down!

Projected High: 4,523.8003 (42.6304 points)
Projected Low: 4,459.4902 (21.6797 points)

Bullish above 4,495
Bearish below 4,467

NIFTY Outlook for 22nd July 2009

No doubt there's been good strength in the market. But are we now about to run out of energy? Although NIFTY took out a recent high (see chart), we are just a few points away from the danger level of 270 degrees. Watch closely how NIFTY behaves around that level.

Projected High: 4,496.5503 (27.4502 points)
Projected Low: 4,409.1504 (59.9497 points)

Bullish above 4,489
Bearish below 4,449

NIFTY and FTSE Outlook for 21st Juy 2009

Apologies. I've not been able to put together the charts and text for the daily outlook for 21st July. I will resume the posts from the evening of 21st July.

FTSE Outlook for 20th July 2009

Two chart views for FTSE this time. Both looking sufficiently bearish. I am pretty much convinced we are on the verge of seeing the downtrend resume. Initial short-term target seems to be in the vicinity of 4178. There could further downside to follow after that but not without a bounce or two I suppose.

Projected High: 4,425.3652 (36.6152 points)
Projected Low: 4,375.2949 (13.4551 points)

Bullish above 4,402
Bearish below 4,374

NIFTY Outlook for 20th July 2009

I have put up two chart views for NIFTY this time. In both cases, the outlook is definitely bearish. Bulls better beware! See charts for further comments.

Projected High: 4,462.7993 (87.8491 points)
Projected Low: 4,302.5493 (72.4009 points)

Bullish above 4,394
Bearish below 4,354

FTSE Outlook for 17th Aug 2009

Please see chart for comments.

Projected High: 4,401.35 (39.52 points)
Projected Low: 4,345.64 (16.20 points)

Bullish above 4,372.1968
Bearish below 4,351.4829

NIFTY Outlook for 17th Aug 2009

NIFTY fell just short of 4324 (the 180° level) by about 19 points. Can it reach it tomorrow? Quite possibly, especially given the strong performance by DOW on Thursday.

Projected High: 4,317.95 (86.55 points)
Projected Low: 4,218.45 (12.95 points)

Bullish above 4,251
Bearish below 4,211

FTSE Outlook for 16th August 2009

As with NIFTY, I have found good reason to re-anchor the grid on FTSE to the recent low. With the strong push that occurred today, there seem to be three distinct possibilities that may play out in the next few days. Firstly, FTSE could potentially run into trouble when (and if) it touches approx 4360. The second possibility is that it may attempt to push up to 4430 and drift down. The third and final possibility is a rise all the way upto the 180° level of 4510 and hit resistance. Which of these scenarios is most likely? I honestly don't know. But knowing what the possibilities are is probably nearly as good!

Projected High: 4,400.85 (54.39 points)
Projected Low: 4,292.07 (54.39 points)

Bullish above 4,356
Bearish below 4,336

NIFTY Outlook for 16th July 2009

As mentioned yesterday, I have decided to re-anchor the grid to commence from the low of 13th July 09. That immediately gives us a clue on the possible strength and extent of the current up move (which should at this point be considered a counter-trend rally). Since NIFTY has punched through the 90° level on the So9 grid, a further push to the red diagonal line or even up to the 180° level is a distinct possibility. The target at the highlighted spot on the red diagonal would be approx 4267 while the target at the 180° level would be 4324.

Projected High: 4,212.45 (34.20 points)
Projected Low: 4,148.50 (29.75 points)

Bullish above 4,198
Bearish below 4,158

FTSE Outlook for 15th July 2009

Please read the comments directly off the chart.

Projected High: 4,275.84 (38.16 points)
Projected Low: 4,218.21 (19.47 points)

Bullish above 4,248
Bearish below 4,227

NIFTY Outlook for 15th July 2009

Although NIFTY skipped our target of 3866 at the 360 degree line, the bounce that we were expecting today most certainly materialised. The big question now of course is, what next? There is a bit of uncertainty now though some follow-through can reasonably be expected. I would like to see NIFTY hit a horizontal line or one of the near-by diagonals before a clear assessment can be made. There could also be a case for re-aligning the Square of Nine grid - but we'll probably decide on that in a day or two.

Projected High: 4,197.55 (86.15 points)
Projected Low: 4,042.75 (68.65 points)

Bullish above 4,132
Bearish below 4,090

FTSE Outlook for 14th July 2009

Tragedy! Our target of 4091 was missed by a mere 5 points! The lowest FTSE got to today was 4096 and from there it bounced pretty convincingly.

But is this the end of the fall? For the very short term, perhaps. But I will keep an eye on the red diagonal. FTSE has touched that before and turned down. If there is a strong downtrend in play, chances are that another touch of the red diagonal will send the index hurtling down further.

Projected High: 4,262.28 (60.15 points)
Projected Low: 4,149.11 (53.02 points)

Bullish above 4,212
Bearish below 4,191

NIFTY Outlook for 14th July 2009

Remember our target of 3866? NIFTY came as close as within 52 points of reaching that target today. Although it is still seemingly on schedule to achieve that target tomorrow, with the strong bounce in the US markets, the chances of a further fall tomorrow are looking rather reduced.

Projected High: 3,988.73 (14.68 points)
Projected Low: 3,904.08 (69.97 points)

Bullish above 3,995
Bearish below 3,953

FTSE Outlook for 13th July 2009

FTSE is now very close to achieving out 180 degree line target of 4091. Question now is will it bounce from there or will it carry on further down. I confess to being pretty bearish and would not be surprised to see the index heading for the 270 degree line (read the index values off the degree lines towards the far right of the chart).

Projected High: 4,143.83 (16.66 points)
Projected Low: 4,106.84 (20.33 points)

Bullish above 4,137
Bearish below 4,116

NIFTY Outlook for 13th July 2009

A bounce did not take place on Friday after all. As things stand now, the 360 degree line target is very much alive. The "scheduled" arrival is on the 14th of July. If it does get there on that day, there's a very good chance of a recovery on that day as well. NIFTY's behaviour on the 14th July will be very interesting to observe.

Projected High: 4,066.93 (63.03 points)
Projected Low: 3,913.77 (90.13 points)

Bullish above: 4,024
Bearish below: 3,982

FTSE Outlook for 10th July 2009

Please view the chart for comments.

Projected High: 4,195.63 (36.97 points)
Projected Low: 4,149.45 (9.21 points)

Bullish above 4,170.8682
Bearish below 4,146.4521

NIFTY Outlook for 10th July 2009

NIFTY managed to put up a doji bar today. And the fact that this has happened along the upward sloping green diagonal could well be significant. Perhaps the index is serious about a counter-trend rally at this point. But then again, we still have the un-fulfilled 360 degree line target. Best to let the market show its hand tomorrow.

Projected High: 4,135.45 (54.50 points)
Projected Low: 4,060.40 (20.55 points)

Bullish above 4,101
Bearish below 4,059

FTSE Outlook for 9th July 2009

FTSE is chugging along nicely to our targets. It highly possible that FTSE will touch the 180 degree line on Thursday after which it could bounce.

Upside Target: 4,168.89 (28.66 points)
Downside Target: 4,101.90 (38.33 points)

Bullish above 4,152
Bearish below 4,128

NIFTY Outlook for 9th July 2009

It was such a pleasure to note that NIFTY hit the 270 degree level with precision! Ahead, I think NIFTY will attempt a bounce of sorts but let's not forget the 360 degree line target it has yet to achieve.

Upside Target: 4,140.37 (61.47 points)
Downside Target: 3,999.62 (79.28 points)

Bullish above 4,100
Bearish below 4,057

FTSE Outlook for 8th July 2009

Despite an initial attempt to rise, FTSE reversed and closed down for the day. As things stand, the 180 degree level target is very much a possibility. I reckon we should get there fairly soon as we are barely a day or two away from an important timing line.

Upside Taget: 214.53 (27.53 points)
Downside Target: 4,156.82 (30.18 points)

Bullish above 4,199.21
Bearish below 4,174.78

NIFTY Outlook for 8th July 2009

NIFTY had a much-deserved pause today. But surely that's all it is! I believe our targets at the 270 and 360 degree levels are still very much on. And with the big-ish fall on the DOW on Tuesday, NIFTY could well be encouraged to follow suit. Ultimately, judge the situation as it develops during trading hours and make your own decision.

Upside Target: 4,255.13 (52.98 points)
Downside Target: 4,178.83 (23.32 points)

Bullish above 4,223.51
Bearish below 4,180.78

FTSE Outlook for 7th July 2009

As expected, FTSE is dropping down towards our initial target of 4091 at the 180 degree line. Fingers crossed, we will see it achieve that target shortly.

Projected High: 4,215.59 (20.68 points)
Projected Low: 4,151.65 (43.27 points)

Bullish above 4,207
Bearish below 4,1823

NIFTY Outlook for 7th July 2009

What a nasty drop NIFTY suffered today! Just when it looked like NIFTY might continue further with its rally, it runs into stiff resistance at the 90 degree level and turns viciously down. That brings us to the next question - how much further down? My opinion (and it is just that!) is that NIFTY will want to go down to at least te 360 degree level (3866) though not necessarily in a single day.

Projected High: 4,322.75 (157.05 points)
Projected Low: 3,976.65 (189.05 points)

Bullish above: 4,192
Bearish below: 4,139

FTSE Outlook for 6th July 2009

It's been about four months since I last updated this blog. At that point, I had envisaged a counter-trend rally about to begin within a day or two. So what really happened? Fortunately, the rally DID occur! I admit to feeling rather chuffed about it. :-)

Anyway, the reason for my absence was a rather complicated one. Suffice to say, I am back now and will endeavor to update the blog every trading day.

Moving back to FTSE, the index had been in a mightily boring range for a few weeks. Only now, it is showing signs of a possible breakdown. Hopefully, we will see a move down to the 180 degree level initially. And should the momentum prove strong enough, perhaps down to 270 degrees as well. Interesting few weeks ahead!

Possible Upside Target : 4,284.3799
Possible Downside Target : 4,197.1396

Bullish above : 4,248.4937
Bearish below : 4,224.0659

N.B. Outlook for NIFTY will resume in a day or two as I need to organise missing data.